Donald Makes a Drug Deal

When the usual explanations fail, alternatives must be considered

When your Spidey sense tingles, it’s usually a good idea to take note of that. IT means something in the universe is out of whack. That’s how it was when J.D. Vance was announced as Trump’s running mate. My first reaction was ambivalence. It’s nice that he is not yet a member of the party and DC establishment. At the same time, it was hard to overlook a glaring similarity between him and another political figure of recent times.

To check if this was an irrational thought, I put the following question to a closed group whose insights are often valuable: if the Democratic Party had nominated someone with Vance’s political credentials, what would the reaction be? Immediately, there were mentions of Vance’s humble roots, his service in the Marine Corps, and a best-selling novel that I should make time to read. Interesting points but each avoids the question. A lone individual provided the glaringly obvious answer: “I’d say he was Barack Obama.”

This is not to say that Vance and Obama are ideologically similar. But there are striking parallels in both men’s meteoric rise through the ranks, in being political neophytes, and in introducing themselves through books. At parallel points in their lives, neither had a history of policy initiatives to highlight but both could talk a good game and each was noted more for cosmetic reasons than substance – Obama for race, Vance for his upbringing.

Presidential running mates are typically selected to shore up a real or perceived electoral weakness. Erasing what has happened since 2016, Mike Pence was chosen as a seasoned political hand with executive experience, a conservative track record, and a committed Christian who could reach the evangelical community. The latter was particularly important as Trump’s personal history was a red flag for some on the right. It was also a factor in the birth of the Never-Trumpers, a club that once included Vance.

What is Vance’s appeal? He is young, so there is the idea of extending the MAGA philosophy to the next generation. There is no deep political pedigree, though to be fair, experience in DC is highly over-rated since virtually everything that is wrong with govt is the work of people who have been on the scene for decades. The longer the question is interrogated, the more apparent the answer becomes. The selection has nothing to do with Vance’s age or brand of politics, and almost everything to do with his life before entering the arena.  

When in doubt, follow the money. Following Vance leads to a billionaire’s row that is steeped in the worlds of venture capital, where J.D. used to reside, and data, a form of currency in its own right. The latter is especially notable given that Vance’s primary political benefactor is Peter Thiel, a man who virtually underwrote the nominee’s Senate campaign. Thiel is also the co-founder of a company called Palantir Technologies, which has long been in bed with the intelligence community and defense industry. This includes foreign govts, too, along with a substantial data mining enterprise that spans private domains such as finance, health care, and IT.

There is no small irony in this. You may recall that it was Repubs who howled the loudest against reauthorizing the FISA program because the alleged anti-terror tool also allows warrantless spying on Americans. The irony is further compounded in that Thiel is regarded as a libertarian and in interviews like this one, frets about totalitarian govt, which is at significant odds with what Palantir does. I’m not sure two things could be more at odds than libertarianism and a surveillance state, but here we are.  

By almost every traditional calculus, the marriage of a Never-Trumper and a key cog in the spy world has no place in TrumpLand. Since the usual explanations for this nomination do not add up, alternatives must be considered. The best alternative I can come up with is that this was the political version of a drug deal, a trade-off in which Trump accepts a donor’s favorite son in return for a wellspring of cash and an intel apparatus that no conventional political campaign could muster.

One thing that separates Trump from all other candidates in my lifetime is having FU money. His wealth meant that holding office would not be a means of cashing in; Trump lost money during his term. Donors have mostly supported him because his goals align with theirs, not because they wanted to buy influence. Four years (eight years?) of unrelenting attacks, however, have created a need for new allies, unlikely as they may be and even a billionaire’s pockets are only so deep. At heart, Trump is a businessman, a negotiator, a dealmaker. This choice looks far more like that than a political partnership.

If it was purely about politics, Sarah Sanders was worthy of consideration. The Arkansas Governor worked for Trump before, understands the ebb and flow of DC without wearing its stench, and has no baggage that I am aware of. Sanders is also a woman and perhaps that should not matter, but it’s not nothing. There are quite a few American women whose views mirror those of Sanders, women who remember the personal cheap shots she took as press secretary and the professionalism with which she handled herself. But that’s a discussion for another campaign.

Another woman’s name had been raised at one point, Tulsi Gabbard. I could never wrap my head around the ideological and mental gymnastics required to go from seeking the Dem nomination in one election cycle to being on the Repub ticket the next. A similar mindset applies to Vance – to go from calling Trump “America’s Hitler” to being all-in looks much like a vegan suddenly adopting the carnivore diet. It may be possible, but it is not very likely.  

One counterargument is that the likes of Thiel and Sacks are acting more out of self-interest than political considerations, though that view struggles in Thiel’s case. Palantir has a long history with the govt and is not likely to be displaced no matter who wins. Trump may need Thiel more than the other way around. The faithful were not enthused with options like Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, or the North Dakota governor, and the others whose names came up were second-tier at best.

After the fact, GOP establishment insiders are already drawing out the long knives for Vance, continuing the party’s tradition of being its own worst enemy. Just as Dems lined up in blind support of Kamala Harris, you can be sure they will do likewise with whoever her running mate is. No Dem cares that the party summarily rejected Harris in 2020, that she was on Team Biden purely for identity reasons, or that her time as border czar resulted in millions and millions of illegals coming across. Dems are not daunted by prior failure; they only care about future wins.

This is Trump’s last time in the ring and he seems to have adopted that same mindset. Perhaps he believes this level of financial and technical horsepower this alliance brings is worth whatever pushback comes. Ultimately, no one votes for the VP choice anyway and the new talking point of Vance being weird is a bit comical considering its sources. Trump now has serious funds at his disposal and a data-mining machine that could prove invaluable. A man’s political mortality can make the usual considerations matter far less than base human motives. Go big or go home.