From a figurative 24 hours to beyond a literal 24 weeks, from a 50-day deadline to a 10-12 calendar, and now, to a meeting that has “a good chance” of happening soon. In a rare instance, CNN is onto something in being skeptical about the timeline that President Trump has imposed on Russia for working out a ceasefire agreement over the war in Ukraine.
Tariff deadlines have been a moving target since they were initially set, the certitude about reaching an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program is gone, and the turmoil in Gaza rages on. Resolving existing battles has given way to starting new ones, such as the punitive tariff to be imposed on India for daring to buy Russian oil, as if it is the job of any US administration to dictate to other countries who they can and cannot do business with.
At the heart of this seat-of-the-pants approach to foreign policy is a yawning lack of awareness of who and what other nations are all about. With India, for instance, Trump is also vexed that the Indians refuse to open their consumer market to foreign-made agricultural products. Trump’s staff is equally vexed. Or it’s purposely not bringing the president up to speed about reality.
For all its brain power, all its engineers and IT people, and its sheer size, India’s per-capita GDP is 144th among the 194 nations in the world. In other words, the tech talent and growth of its largest cities hide the vast numbers of Indians who toil in a level of grinding poverty that Americans cannot comprehend. Letting in foreign-made products would mean the end of India’s agricultural industry.
How in the world is it that some guy with an Interwebz connection can find this out, but people within the administration cannot? The cynic in me says the answer is not about cannot but will not. Trump is a real estate mogul, not a foreign policy expert. It’s why he and other presidents have advisers who are allegedly experts in matters where a president needs good advice.
He’s not getting that advice. Not on India, not on Russia, not in other matters. It is inconceivable that no one in his cadre of specialists is willing or able to explain the history of Russia and Ukraine to Trump. The alternative is that the president’s attention span is too short for him to learn and understand the details. Neither possibility is encouraging.
Putin has been crystal clear in laying out his conditions for ending hostilities. There can be no misunderstanding of what he wants. Atop the list is that Ukraine cannot be part of NATO or other defensive alliance that is hostile to Moscow. That point was made clear in 2008 at a summit in Bucharest, Romania, a meeting whose impact echoes today.
At the time, NATO said that Ukraine and Georgia would both be joining the alliance, but it was never explained how that would happen. Putin, meanwhile, was on hand to personally lobby officials against doing that. This was 2008, years before the 2014 coup in Ukraine that replaced the sitting govt with one more likely to do America’s bidding. The talking point of this being an unprovoked conflict is just as empty as Trump’s continued claim that this is Biden’s war. Not anymore, it’s not. The buck stops at the desk behind which only one man is sitting.
For its part, India plans to keep buying Russian oil. So does China, which is Russia’s biggest energy customer, and a country the US needs at least as much as China needs the US. The schoolyard bully tactics are achieving the wrong effects; alliances among Russia, China, India, and others are growing stronger as a result, not weaker. One of the BRICS’ charter members, Brazil, isn’t even bothering to talk with Trump over tariffs, seeing no point in it.
The bull in the china shop approach has to stop. It’s unprofessional and it demeans the office of the president. Every country, not just the US, has its particular set of interests and will act to advance those interests. There is zero benefit in applying punitive tariffs to a nation that is looking out for its citizens’ well-being. If you want to end a war, then make it worth the participants’ while to end the war; don’t outsource the task by trying to punish countries that are not part of the war. The ending cannot come on an outsider’s terms; it can only be done based on what the parties involved decide.
Though it completely runs against who he is, the first bit of advice that Trump needs is to stop instantly going onto his social media site to post about every phone call, email, discussion, and other development, especially when the aforementioned were just parts of a process and not solutions in themselves. That he had an “excellent” phone call with whomever is meaningless if the existing issue is unresolved. He does not owe the media a dissertation on every question that is asked. How ironic that one of his flaws is talking too much to a press that we were told he would shut down or imprison if given the chance. Worst. Fascist. Ever.
Artificial deadlines are just that, much like threats that infringe on national sovereignty. At some point, there has to be an adviser who will tell Mr. Trump things that he does not want to hear. Among those is that not every situation is a binary, black hat/white hat encounter that requires a winner and loser.
The war in Ukraine has nothing to do with American national interests. No, Vladimir Putin does not want to restore the Soviet Union and has said so repeatedly. “Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains” is not an ambiguous statement. Even Lindsay Graham should be able to grasp its meaning. Putin asked for Russia to become part of NATO, not remain in perpetual enemy.
Perhaps this meeting, should it occur, can begin with Trump realizing that it is not about him and never has been. It also requires the last thing that the political class is incapable of – admitting fault. Trump has to tune out the career Russophobes who see a nation they desperately want to break apart and plunder for their benefit, and understand what is needed to, as he says, stop the killing. An unconditional cease-fire is not going to happen. Trump must go prepared to listen first and speak later. That’s how deals work. He, of all people, knows that.
I completely agree, Alex. His ego is a double edged sword. Some times it cuts through the BS and other times it cuts out people who would give him good advice. All of the shortcomings of his first administration lost him his second. (I know, some will say he didn't lose, that it's a lie, but for the purpose of this argument, the results are the same.) Now that he has succeeded, he's had time to prepare for the long game but he's still making some rookie moves. I want no part of Truth Social. Like before, he says too many things that just give the opposition ammo with his fly by the seat of his pants approach. I don't expect things to change. Cheetahs, you know. I expect 3.5 more years of a bumpy ride. He will accomplish great things. He already has. He will also break a lot of eggs and the omelet may not be what the doctor ordered. Excuse the metaphors.