Based on the past several years, is there an event or chain of events that you would dismiss as impossible? I ask based on what Santa left behind this year: a series of dots to connect, a warning about this year's presidential selection cycle (provided there is one), and hard evidence that points to a couple of things that are almost certain to happen.
Let's start with the dots. In a different era, connecting them this way would be dismissed as crazy talk. But follow me, if you will, because no other explanation makes sense. The last few years have shown that if a person in power can think of something, no matter how evil, then that person and others are either doing it or working to figure out how. This theory will gain credence when accompanied by the rock-solid data behind the things that are likely to occur. If something here jumps the rails, I am open to alternative ideas.
For the past 15 years or so, dozens of federal agencies with no law enforcement brief have been quietly stockpiling weapons. It's not unreasonable to ask why the Department of Agriculture needs submachine guns or why something called the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has spent millions on ".308 caliber rifles, night vision goggles, propane cannons, liquid explosives, drones, remote controlled helicopters, thermal cameras, military waterproof thermal infrared scopes, and more."
I don't know the reason for steadily militarizing bureaucracies, but it cannot be a good one. That brings us to the millions of mostly young males of unknown origin who continue streaming across the border and another quarter-million who have been quietly flown into the country. To what end? No matter how often people repeat the claim, this is not about asylum. There are five grounds under which a person can seek asylum in the US; as best I can tell, none apply here.
In case you're wondering, the $100+ billion aid package the administration wants for Ukraine and Israel includes about $14 billion for the border. But not for border security. Because who thinks that's needed? There is funding for more Border Patrol agents to give the appearance of enforcement action. There is also money for more lawyers and immigration personnel to speed up the processing of those being allowed to enter. Because they are apparently not being shuttled in quickly enough.
I'll ask again – to what end is this happening? Is it probable that these newcomers would be marshaled into a de facto enforcement unit? It is certainly plausible because no convincing explanation has been given to justify this mass importation. There is no labor crisis this will address, and the asylum talking point has been discounted, leaving few options. This year, a new Illinois law will allow cities to hire non-citizens as cops. Last year, similar legislation went into effect in California. These measures are supposed to be restricted to migrants who are authorized to work here, but we are long past believing that immigration law is anything more than words on paper.
Why does this matter? Because of what likely lies ahead. Cardboard, as it turns out, is a reliable indicator of the state of the economy. Sales of boxes used for shipping goods are at their lowest level since the great financial crisis. Fewer boxes mean that people buy less stuff, which the freight industry confirms. It's limping along with three of the top-five container shipping companies preparing to cut costs, usually a polite way of saying layoffs are coming.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has announced a series of anticipated interest rate cuts. If the past is prologue, that will increase unemployment to about 7.5% in the next year or so. That's roughly double the current published rate, which you can believe is real or not. For planning purposes, the jobless rate starts to tick upward about three months after the first rate cut. Between this and shipping, we have the makings of a doom loop: people being laid off, which means less consumption, which means further layoffs as businesses try to stay solvent.
On the back of economic distress is the specter of war. That $100 billion aid package that was mentioned earlier is not just for the sinkhole of Ukraine and for Israel; it also earmarks money for "security needs" in Asia-Pacific, which presumably means China and Taiwan. That's three potential battlefronts. However, our supply arsenal is tapped out. But fear not; the defense industry is ready to crank up production, and Congress knows a good investment opportunity when it creates one. War stock purchases ramped up even before the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7. A cynic might think that it's almost as if someone knew something.
So now we have fiscal upheaval and the rumbling war machine. This leaves the warning that Santa left about the election cycle and the possibility of civil unrest. You may recall that multiple cities went on high alert in 2020 and let's be clear - the fear was that violence would break out if Trump won, not if he lost. Look at the polls today, plus the madness that ensues at the mere mention of the man's name. The pro-Hamas demonstrators who worked to spoil Christmas activities, blocked roads and bridges, and showed up at the homes of senior govt officials are starting to look like a stalking horse to test the reaction of law enforcement, though that is hardly necessary.
Cops have been neutered for the last three years and we have the receipts. Who will police this unrest, not just the political aspect but also when economic turmoil hits full stride and people who have maxed out their credit cards have no wiggle room left? How about those with no credit card option at all? While this unfolds, there is the background noise of digital IDs, the end of cash, and the threat of a cyberattack on the financial system.
Imagine millions being unable to access their money at a time when the people in charge have shown no appetite for restoring social order. On the contrary, they give every appearance of wanting to further foment chaos, perhaps to the point that a beleaguered public will accept almost anything to make it stop.
You should also know that Team Biden is paying states to adopt gun laws that Congress will not pass. That's from the Authoritarianism for Dummies handbook, and on its own, it could be viewed as more of the same from people who are hostile to individual liberty and the Constitution. But it's not happening in a vacuum. It's happening as tensions are ratcheted upward, the financial system is weakening, and regional, if not global, conflict appears inevitable.
I don't want to think that mercenaries are being imported to keep the proles in line, but if that's not it, then what are they doing here? Any pretense that govt is working on our behalf is long gone. The elected class serves its donors and we are often inconvenient people who get in their way. In the last three years, it’s hard to think of just one thing that DC has done to benefit the American taxpayer. It’s not hard to think of several things that have done the opposite.
This isn’t stupidity. This isn’t incompetence. This is intent and our best defenses are situational awareness and a modicum of preparedness. Not apocalypse-level preparedness, maybe not even snafu-level, but something more than most folks are used to. A frequent refrain in Game of Thrones was “Winter is coming.” So it is. We’ll see how severe it is and how long it lasts. And again, I hope to be wrong.
You're not jumping the rails Alex. Shy of the issues of Ukraine and now Israel and the depletion of our munitions stores, I wrote essentially the same last May: https://curetsky.substack.com/p/building-an-army-of-bureaucrats (guess I was early to the party). As much as I hate to imagine it, I don't think its paranoia or unfounded speculation. I believe you just have the foresight/insight that many today seem to be missing.
I hope you're wrong, too. I bet you're closer to right though. They armed the USDA in 1981. I'm not sure why. The HSA gave authority to arm so many more agencies. I thought it was a knee jerk reaction to 9/11 but maybe there was a long game afoot. Why does the department of education need weapons? It certainly does sound like they are amassing an army with the influx at the border. It's a crazy Etch A Sketch connect the dots but it's just crazy enough to be true. Happy New Year.